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Session 2.2 Abstracts

Symposium home | Session 2 | Session 3 | Session 4 | Abstracts by Author |

 

2.2 Evolution of National and Regional Ocean Forecasting and Analysis Systems: From Demonstrating Feasibility to Robust Services

Session conveners: Ed Harrison, Mike Bell and Hui Wang


The table below lists all abstracts for Session 2.2 by author. To read the full abstract click on the title-link.

The unique reference number (ref. no.) relates to the abstract submission process and must be used in any communications with the organisers.

All abstracts from session 2.2 are available for download - pdf.

 
 Ref.NoPrimary AuthorAffiliationCountryAbstract titlePosters
S2.2-01Aikman, FrankNOAA Ocean Coast SurveyUnited StatesDevelopment and Implementation of Operational Coastal Forecasting Systems by NOAA’s National Ocean Service Oral (see Bahurel)
S2.2-02Bahurel, PierreMercator OceanFranceMyOcean: a pilot project for the European Copernicus Marine Service Oral
S2.2-03Blockley, EdMet OfficeUnited KingdomRecent development of the Met Office FOAM system: an overview and assessment of the new Global FOAM forecastsPoster-pdf
S2.2-04Brassington, GaryCAWCR/Bureau of MeteorologyAustraliaOcean Model, Analysis and Prediction System (OceanMAPS) 
S2.2-05Fanton d'Andon, OdileACRI-STFranceOSS2015 - Ocean Strategic Service beyond 2015 
S2.2-06Hogan, PatrickNRLUnited StatesThe Navy’s Global Ocean Forecast System: Recent Advancements and Plans for the Future 
S2.2-07Ishizaki, ShiroMRI-JMAJapanOperational Ocean Modeling for the western North Pacific at JMA 
S2.2-08Korotaev, GennadyMHI NASUUkraineOperational forecasting of the Black SeaPoster-pdf
S2.2-09Larnicol, GillesCLSFranceTHE SSALTO/DUACS Multimisson Altimeter Centers: Recent ImprovementsPoster-pdf
S2.2-10Lellouche, Jean-MichelMercator OceanFranceMajor upgrade of the global Mercator Océan analysis and forecasting high resolution systemPoster-pdf
S2.2-11Li, BenxiaNMEFCChinaOperational regional wave and storm surge forecasting system at NMEFCPoster-pdf
S2.2-12Peterson, KMet OfficeUnited KingdomGloSea5 Ocean Analysis: A re-analysis for 1989-2012Poster-pdf
S2.2-13Pouliquen, SylvieIfremerFranceCoriolis, a French In-Situ service for operational oceanography 
S2.2-14Pouliquen, SylvieIfremerFranceMyOcean In-Situ Thematic Center: A service for operational Oceanography 
S2.2-15Santoleri, RosaliaCNR-ISACItalyThe MyOcean Ocean Colour Thematic Assembling Centre: an Integrated European Service to access satellite ocean colour data 
S2.2-16Shan, MeiNMEFCChinaAn pre-operational Indian-Pacific ocean analysis system at National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China 
S2.2-17Smith, GregoryEnvironment CanadaCanadaThe CONCEPTS Global Ice-Ocean Prediction System: Establishing an Environmental Prediction Capability in CanadaPoster-pdf
S2.2-18Srinivasan, AshwanthTendral LLCUnited StatesTowards an eddy resolving operational forecast system for the Indian Ocean 
S2.2-19Stafford, GeorgeDepartment of Water ResourcesGambiaOperational Oceanography Infrastructure 
S2.2-20Tolman, HendrikNOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMCUnited StatesGlobal and Regional Operational Ocean Forecast Systems at NCEP/NWS 
S2.2-21Tonani, MarinaIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)ItalyThe evolution of the regional forecasting systems of the Mediterranean Sea during the 20th centuriesPoster-pdf
S2.2-22Wang, DakuiNMEFCChinaThe South China Sea operational forecasting system: model and data assimilationPoster-pdf
S2.2-23Wang, HuiNMEFCChinaAn Overview of the Chinese Global Operational Oceanography Forecasting System Oral
S2.2-24Xue, YanClimate Prediction Center/NCEPUnited StatesAn assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysisPoster-pdf

 


ID 2.2-01

Development and Implementation of Operational Coastal Forecasting Systems by NOAA’s National Ocean Service

Frank Aikman III and Aijun Zhang

NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS), Silver Spring, MD 20910

frank.aikman@noaa.gov ; 301-713-2809 x101

Abstract

NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS) applies hydrodynamic models for the development, transition and implementation of Operational Forecast Systems (OFS) in U.S. estuaries, ports, lakes and the coastal ocean. These systems have applications on synoptic time scales (hours to several day forecasts) in the support of safe and efficient marine navigation and emergency response as well as marine geospatial and ecological applications. There are currently thirteen water bodies in which OFSs are functioning. Once tested, fully evaluated, and deemed accurate by NOS standards, the systems are transitioned into the operational environment. The technical components of a real-time coastal and estuarine modeling system are configured in terms of a “standard” Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) which increases the efficiency of research, development, transition and operations. The COMF includes the operational management of observations and forecasts of atmospheric, coastal and riverine inputs, as well as the operational quality control and dissemination of results. It also includes protocols and software for the skill assessment of operational forecast systems. COMF provides tools, observational data, and a test bed with which to configure, execute, and determine model uncertainties. A new strategy of transitioning from individual port or estuarine models to a regional modeling approach is also being developed. The first NOS regional model was recently implemented for the northern Gulf of Mexico. A similar approach is being planned for the U.S. West and East Coasts. Current OFS coverage is ~30% of the coastal continental U.S. The NOS target is to have 100% coverage within five years. The vision is a system of OFS coastal models operationally coupled to atmospheric models, to global or basin-scale ocean circulation models, and to river or hydrologic models. The OFSs will also provide the operational physical foundation (inputs) to future operational ecological models and for evaluation of the coastal impact of climate change.


ID 2.2-02

MyOcean: a pilot project for the European Copernicus Marine Service

P. Bahurel1

1 Mercator Ocean, Ramonville, France

Abstract

The MyOcean2 project took over from MyOcean (early 2012) and from other precursor projects in the main implementation of the Copernicus (formerly GMES) Marine Service. This open and free service provides state of the art observation, analysis and forecast ocean products for the global ocean and for European regional seas. It is operational since December 2011.

A status of both service and project is given. This status first addresses the main steps of the development plan showing the interactions between the R&D activities and the main releases operationally available to users. Then the service is described from an analysis of the interactions with the users: number, types, application areas, main request for evolutions.

Finally an overview is given of the transition from the current service to the sustained Copernicus Marine Service which should become a reality in 2014.


ID 2.2-03

Recent development of the Met Office FOAM system: an overview and assessment of the new Global FOAM forecasts

E. W. Blockley1, M. J. Bell1, C. Guiavarc'h1, D. J. Lea1, M. J. Martin1, A. J. McLaren1,

I. Mirouze1, A. K. Peterson1, A. G. Ryan1, A. Sellar1, D. Storkey1, J. Waters1, J. While 1

1 Met Office, Exeter, UK

Abstract

The Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) is an operational ocean analysis and forecast system run daily at the Met Office. The FOAM system provides modelling capability in both deep ocean and coastal shelf seas regimes. The FOAM Deep Ocean suite produces analyses and 7 day forecasts of ocean tracers, currents and sea-ice for the global ocean at 1/4º resolution and at 1/12º resolution in the North Atlantic, Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea basins. Satellite and in-situ observations of temperature, salinity, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration are assimilated by FOAM each day over a 48-hour window.

The FOAM Deep Ocean configurations have recently undergone a large-scale upgrade which has involved: the implementation of a new variational 3D-Var assimilation scheme (NEMOVAR); coupling to a different, multi-category, sea-ice model (CICE); the use of CORE bulk formulae to specify the surface boundary condition; and an increased vertical resolution.

Here we introduce the new FOAM Deep Ocean system (FOAM v12) and describe the recent changes made to the system. Results will be presented from 2-year integrations of the FOAM Global configuration using both the new FOAM v12 and the old FOAM v11 systems.

As well as an assessment of the FOAM analyses using model-observation comparisons an assessment of forecast accuracy will be presented out to 5-days lead-time. Comparisons show significant improvements in the new system to the surface fields and in the extra-tropical regions.


ID 2.2-04

Ocean Model, Analysis and Prediction System (OceanMAPS)

Gary B. Brassington1, Peter R. Oke2, Andreas Schiller2, Justin Freeman1, Paul Sandery1, Pavel Sakov 1, Xinmei Huang3, Andy Taylor1, Leon Majewski3 and Mikhail Entel3

1 CAWCR/Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne/Sydney/Hobart, Australia

2 CAWCR/CSIRO, Hobart, Australia

3 Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia

Abstract

The Australian Government’s investment in successive research and development projects, (BLUElink, -2 and -3) has established and sustained operational ocean forecasting for Australia since 2007. Ocean Model, Analysis and Prediction System (OceanMAPS) supports a wide range of services to Government, Commerce and the public. The system has been based on an ocean model that resolves eddies (1/10°×1/10°) and upper-ocean dynamics (Δz

OceanMAPS is composed of an ocean model, a data assimilation system, real-time observations and real-time atmospheric forcing. The ocean model is a configuration of the GFDL/Modular Ocean Model version 4p1 with specific enhancements. The BLUElink Ocean Data Assimilation System uses an ensemble optimal interpolation method. BODAS is configured to assimilate observations from satellite altimetry, satellite SST and in situ profiles. The real-time observations are collated from both the GTS and GDAC’s and assessed for quality via an automated quality control system. Atmospheric fluxes are applied to the system based on the latest global operational numerical weather prediction system at the Bureau of Meteorology, (ACCESS-G, APS1).

OceanMAPS has seen a steady increase in performance and reliability through a series of upgrades as shown in Figure 1. The system has also demonstrated a positive impact for the Australian community since it was introduced and this has steadily increased over time.

S2.2-Brassington

Figure 1: The median and max/min range of RMSE for OceanMAPS hindcasts/ forecasts, -5 days to + 7 days for sea surface height anomaly. The colours shown represent different versions of the system, (red) version 1.0c, (purple) version 2.0 and (blue) version 2.1


ID 2.2-05

OSS2015 – Ocean Strategic Service beyond 2015

O. Fanton D'Andon 1 ; A. Mangin1; K. Barker2; J. Hedley2; P. Brasseur3; Ch. Trees5; I. Carslake6; H. Loisel11; N. Dwyer9; M. Pahlow8; S. Besiktepe10; J. Maguire7; L. Arteaga8; M. Gunduz 10; D. Antoine4; H. Claustre4; C. Fontana4, J. Uitz4, M. Shorten7

1 ACRI-ST; Sophia Antipolis, France

2 ARGANS;Plymouth, UK

3 LEGI, Grenoble, France

4 LOV (UPMC), Villefranche sur mer, France

5 NURC, La Spezia, Italy

6 Frontiers Economics, London, UK

7 DOMMRS, Bantry, Ireland

8 IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany

9 UCC, Corke, Ireland

10 DEU, Istanbul, Turkey

11 ULCO, Wimereux, France

Abstract

OSS2015 is a FP7 R&D project focused on nowcast, forecast and climatology of the biogeochemical properties of the ocean mixed layer. OSS2015 addresses the fusion of satellite ocean colour data (multispectral radiance of the sea surface) and in situ measurements from autonomous platforms (buoys, drifters, gliders, …) through assimilation into biogeophysical models.

The OSS2015 project aims to carry out R&D activities for the development of marine biogeochemistry products and services not currently available through MyOcean, the precursor service of the operational forecast and analysis component of the European Marine Core Service (MCS) - the upstream marine service of Copernicus.

OSS2015 combines the current state-of-the art bio-profiler and Earth observation data in order to relate remotely detected surface optical properties and chlorophyll to their vertical distribution. OSS2015 is developing assimilation schemes to ingest Earth observation and in situ ocean colour data into cutting-edge numerical biological and biogeochemical models. Beyond the evaluation of these assimilation schemes, a very important outcome will be the optimisation of in situ observation strategies using models and EO or EO data alone.

Two pilots sites have been selected to serve two different types of biogeochemical assimilations. One is in the Ligurian (a dedicated experiment has been set up in March 2013) and is used to qualify bio-optical assimilation techniques with HOPS. The second is in the North Atlantic and will be used for assimilation of bio-profilers data and ocean colour into a biogeochemical model (PISCES).

On top of testing assimilation techniques, OSS2015 is prototyping a data service relevant to marine ecosystems health’s assessment based on Chlorophyll, NPP (net primary Production), PSD (Indice of particle size distribution), POC (Particulate Organic Carbon) and PFT (Phytoplankton functional types). OSS2015 is thus designed to continue dialogue with users in order to adapt offering to the needs. The development of a new web-based platform permit “on-demand” feature and processing opening the door to the ocean colour collaborative platform.

This platform also aims at developing the use of persistent digital identifiers for scientific data. Assigning of DOI (Digital Object Identifier) will contribute to assessment of the usefulness of the level of usage of data products and will permit the citation of data sets in the literature.

Outcomes on optimisation of bio-profilers sampling strategy will be presented.


ID 2.2-06

The Navy’s Global Ocean Forecast System: Recent Advancements and Plans for the Future

P.J. Hogan1, E.J. Metzger1, O.M. Smedstad2, J.A. Richman1, J. Cummings1, and A. Wallcraft 1

1 Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS

2 QuinetiQ North America, Stennis Space Center, MS

Abstract

A new Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS 3.0) has recently been transitioned to the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO) and is now running operationally. The system uses the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for the circulation model, the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) for the atmospheric model, and the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation system for data assimilation. Observations are assimilated via 3-D variational algorithm and include satellite altimeter and sea surface temperature as well as all available in situ surface and profile observations of temperature and salinity. Computations are carried out on a mercator grid between 78°S and 47°N (1/12° equatorial resolution). A bipolar patch is used for regions north of 47°N. The horizontal dimensions of the global grid are 4500 x 3298 grid points resulting in ~7 km spacing on average. There are 32 vertical layers. The system runs daily at the NAVO HPC and generates a 4 day hindcast and a 7 day forecast. The data are made available typically within two days after the model run via servers located at the Center For Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), Florida State University (FSU) (see http://hycom.org/dataserver/glb-analysis/expt-90pt8). The surface forcing used in this system will be changed from NOGAPS to the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) in late August, 2013.

Development is underway for GOFS 3.1, which will be transitioned in mid 2014. This version will have higher vertical resolution (41 vs. 32 layers), and will include the Community Ice Code (CICE) model and Improved Synthetic Ocean Profiles (ISOP) for downward projection of temperature and salinity data. GOFS 3.5 will build on GOFS 3.1 but will have 1/25 (~3.5 km) horizontal resolution and will include tidal forcing. Longer range plans include the development and operational implementation of a global coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-ice system as part of the Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC). Validation metrics will be discussed from GOFS 3.0 and preliminary results will be discussed from GOFS 3.1 and 3.5.

S2.2-Hogan

Sea Surface Height from GOFS 3.0 on 22 July, 2013.


ID 2.2-07

Operational Ocean Modeling for the western North Pacific at JMA

S. Ishizaki1, Y. Kanno1, S. Matsumoto1, N. Usui2, Y. Fujii2, T. Kuragano2, M. Kamachi 2

1 Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

2 Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

Abstract

In 2004, JMA started operational use of ocean analysis / forecasting system for the western North Pacific - COMPASS-K (Comprehensive Ocean Modeling, Prediction Analysis and Synthesis System in the Kuroshio region). In 2008, JMA replaced operational system to MOVE/MRI.COM-WNP (Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation system /Meteorological Research Institute Community Ocean Model for the Western North Pacific). Both the COMPASS-K and the MOVE/MRI.COM-WNP were developed by JMA/MRI.

The MOVE/MRI.COM-WNP consists of a dynamical model and data assimilation system. We use the Meteorological Research Institute Community Ocean Model (MRI.COM) for the dynamical model. The model domain spans from 117E to 160W zonally and from 15N to 65N meridionally. The horizontal resolution is variable: it is 0.1 degree around Japan. There are 54 layers in vertical. The model is driven by wind stress and heat flux from the JMA's operational Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS) in analysis run and forced by the result of the climate forecasting model in forecasting run. For assimilation system, we use the western North Pacific version of the Meteorological Research Institute Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation (MOVE-WNP) system. The analysis scheme adopted in the MOVE system is a multivariate three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) analysis scheme with vertical coupled temperature-salinity Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) modal decomposition. The MOVE system assimilates in situ temperature and salinity profiles, and Sea Surface Height anomaly (SSHA) from satellite altimeter into the dynamical model. In the operational system, in situ temperature and salinity data are obtained from Global Telecommunication Network, and supplied directly by domestic organizations. The SSHA data is the along-track data from Jason-2. In addition, daily global sea surface temperature analysis (MGDSST) is also used for assimilation.

MOVE/MRI.COM-WNP has been updated several times during these years to improve its performance although it mostly reproduces current ocean state well and provides good forecast in the seas around Japan. In this presentation, current status and future plan in operating the regional ocean modeling system at JMA will be shown and discussed.


ID 2.2-08

Operational forecasting of the Black Sea

G.K. Korotaev, Yu. B. Ratner, M.V. Ivanchik, A.L. Kholod, A.I. Kubryakov

MHI NASU, Sevastopol, Ukraine

Abstract

European FP7 “MyOcean” and “MyOcean2” projects have developed an integrated European system of ocean monitoring and forecasting. An integrated system includes seven monitoring and forecasting centers one of each is the Black Sea monitoring and forecasting center (BS MFC) operated by the Marine Hydrophysical Institute of NAS of Ukraine.

The BS MFC consists of operational monitoring and forecasting unit and the dissemination unit which distributes and displays the results of marine forecasts. Specially designed hardware and software complex supports the internal and external networks connections. The service support is designed to maintain the functioning of the system. Simulations by the system are performed based on the circulation, biooptical and biogeochemical models. The following products are provided by the center to users: temperature, salinity, current velocity, sea level, light diffuse attenuation coefficient, nitrates and phytoplankton concentrations. The products of the BS MFC are freely available from the central WEB-portal of the "My Ocean» project ( http://www.myocean ). Both operational analysis and forecast, and reanalysis data are available on the Web.

Products of the Black Sea marine forecast center are used by a set of permanent users. Among them are the experimental national marine forecast centers of Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia and Ukraine which carry out marine forecast for their coastal areas with high spatial resolution. Operational forecast of oil spills drift in the Black Sea is provided on request by the Black Sea track web system that belongs to the Black Sea Commission and is operated by MHI using the BS MFC data. Seasonal maps of several Black Sea parameters are used by European Environmental Agency.


ID 2.2-09

THE SSALTO/DUACS MULTIMISSION ALTIMETER CENTERS: RECENT IMPROVEMENTS

M.-I. Pujol1, Y. Faugère1, S. Labroue1, F. Briol1, G. Dibarboure1,G. Larnicol1, E. Bronner 2 , N. Picot2

1 Collecte Localisation Satellites, Space Oceanography Division, Ramonville Saint-Agne, France.

2 Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales, DCT/ME/OT, Toulouse, France.

Abstract

During the last 20 years, altimeter Level 3 (along-track cross-calibrated SLA) and Level 4 products (merging multiple sensors as maps or time series) to be directly usable and easier to manipulate, L3/4 by the user community and in particular by the ocean forecasters (GODAE members). They contribute to various studies in different fields that cover the ocean, from climate and meteorological phenomena, to geophysics and biology. The objective of the poster is to provide an overview of the activities performed in the frame of the DUACS center.

Firstly, the quality and precision of the DUACS products were periodically improved and assessed. The main past and ongoing improvements will be described emphasing on the role playing by each altimeter mission and the evolution done to adapt to the altimeter events (loss of ENVISAT, change in Jason-1, etc...).

Secondly, we will provide main achievements on the work performed in the frame of MyOcean project to develop new specific products better tuned for assimilation purpose. Indded, new processing has been applying as filtering, subsampling as well as an update of the corrections applied to answer to the assimilation groups needs (no dynamic atmospheric, tides corrections).

Lastly, we will give some perspective relative to the launch of new (C2, HY-2, AltiKa) and future (S3, J3 but also SWOT) missions.


ID 2.2-10

Major upgrade of the global Mercator Océan analysis and forecasting high resolution system

J.-M. Lellouche1, O. Legalloudec2, R. Bourdallé-Badie1, G. Garric1, E. Greiner2, C. Regnier 1, C. Bricaud1, C.-E. Testut1, M. Clavier1, Y. Drillet1, E. Dombrowsky1

1 Mercator Océan, Ramonville Saint Agne, France

2 CLS, Ramonville Saint Agne, France

Abstract

Mercator Océan, the French ocean forecast service provider, was setup about ten years ago by all the French organizations holding stakes in ocean forecasting. It has been since then constantly developed and is currently operating operational ocean analysis and forecasting systems based on state-of-the-art Ocean General Circulation Models. The mandate of Mercator Océan is to cover the global ocean at eddy resolving resolution. To achieve this goal, Mercator Océan is strongly connected to the ocean modeling and data assimilation research communities, at French, European and international levels.

Mercator Océan is engaged in the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) European initiative and is currently coordinating a European consortium (~60 partners) gathering all European skills in ocean monitoring and forecasting to build the Marine forecast component of the GMES service. This is currently done in the MyOcean2 European funded project which started in 2012.

In this context, we have recently performed a major upgrade of the global high resolution system operated at Mercator Océan. This new system now delivers weekly and daily services, and includes numerous improvements related to the ocean/sea-ice model and the assimilation scheme. The previous global system did not benefit from these improvements that were implemented for most of them only in the regional system. Consistency between Mercator Océan systems is thereby ensured by the use of a common basis for all Mercator Océan analysis and forecasting systems.

Observations are assimilated by means of a reduced-order Kalman filter with a 3D multivariate modal decomposition of the forecast error. It includes an adaptive-error estimate and a localization algorithm. Altimeter data, satellite Sea Surface Temperature and in situ temperature and salinity vertical profiles are jointly assimilated to estimate the initial conditions for numerical ocean forecasting. A 3D-Var scheme provides a correction for the slowly-evolving large-scale biases in temperature and salinity. In addition to the quality control performed by data producers, the system carries out a proper quality control on temperature and salinity vertical profiles in order to minimize the risk of erroneous observed profiles being assimilated in the model.

The presentation is focused on product quality improvements, highlighting the high level of performance and the stability of the new system compared to the previous one. The new system is closer to altimetric observations with a forecast RMS difference of 6 cm. The update of the Mean Dynamic Topography corrects local biases in the Indonesian throughflow and in the western Tropical Pacific. This improves also the subsurface currents at the Equator. The new system gives a more accurate description of water masses almost everywhere. Between 0 and 500 m, departures from in situ observations rarely exceed 1 °C and 0.2 psu. Lastly, the assimilation of an improved Sea Surface Temperature product aims to better represent the sea-ice edge during summertime.


ID 2.2-11

Operational regional wave and storm surge forecasting system at NMEFC

Benxia Li1,2, Ye Yuan1,2, Jianxi Dong1,2

1 National Marine Environment Forecasting Center, SOA, Beijing, P.R. China

2 Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, SOA, Beijing, P.R. China

Abstract

Based on SWAN model and grid-nest technique, an operational regional wave forecasting systems have been developed, including North-west Pacific wave forecasting, China Sea wave forecasting, and coastal region wave forecasting. The resolution changes from 0.1 º to 20~50m. Furthermore, in coastal wave forecast, influence of tide on coastal waves is included. All these operational system can present wave parameters forecast with 120 hours duration, such as significant wave height, wave direction, mean wave steepness, as well as the Benjamin-Feir index which can be used to qualify the probability of freak waves.

In recent years, the study of interaction of coastal wave and storm surge has been carried out. At coastal zones, waves and storm surge interact strongly, and short waves are impacted by circulation. Currents can shift wave energy due to Doppler effect, and water levels affect propagation and dissipation due to depth-limited breaking. Otherwise, the transformation of short waves exert radiation stress gradients, which driven currents and surge. Dietrich et al (2011) concluded that water levels can be increased by as much as 35% percent due to local wave-driven set-up. In order to carry out the “precise” forecasting of storm surge and coastal waves, interaction of wave and current should be considered. Based on the coupled SWAN+ADCIRC model, we simulate a typhoon named 0908 “Morakot”, and the forecasting water level and significant wave height at the observation stations are compared to the measured data. The results show that consideration of the couple of wave and current will improve the coastal wave height forecasting greatly, and calculated water levels is more near to the measured data. Based the coupled model, we have developed a sea wall-overflowing forecasting system for Fujian province.

At NMEFC, storm surge forecast is one of operational forecasting products early started. Most of numerical model for forecasting storm surge are developed by ourself, which includes storm surge forecast induced by tropical and extra-tropical cyclone. With development of unstructured circulation model, a finer storm surge forecasting system has been set up. The operational storm surge forecasting model account for the influence of tidal, runoff, coastal waves. Besides, for storm surge induced by tropical cyclone, the prediction precision of route and strength of tropical cyclone play an important role. In order to improve prediction results, an ensemble forecast technique is developed, which can include influence of 5 prediction routes of tropical cyclone.


ID 2.2-12

GloSea5 Ocean Analysis: A re-analysis for 1989-2012

K. Andrew Peterson1, M.J. Martin2, J. Waters2, M.D.Palmer1, C.D. Roberts1, D.J. Lea2, and J. While2

1 Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB,UK

2 Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK

Corresponding author: drew.peterson@metoffice.gov.uk

Abstract

As a requirement of the GloSea5 high resolution seasonal forecast system, a ~25km ocean ocean analysis for 1989-present has been undertaken at the UK Met Office (UKMO). Except for ocean surface boundary conditions, this analysis is identical to the Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) ocean analysis and forecast system operational at UKMO. We will introduce the GloSea5 analysis and discuss its validation and performance.


ID 2.2-13

Coriolis, a French In-Situ service for operational oceanography

S Pouliquen1, N Lebreton2,,T Carval1, G Reverdin3 ,PY Le Traon1 and Coriolis team4

1 IFREMER ,Plouzané,France

2 SHOM, Brest, France

3 LOCEAN/IPSL, UMR CNRS/UPMC/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France

4 http://www.coriolis.eu.org

Abstract

CORIOLIS, conducted by seven French agencies involved in ocean research (CNES, CNRS, IPEV, IRD, METEO-FRANCE, SHOM and IFREMER) developed a complete structure for acquisition, validation and distribution, in real and delayed modes, of in-situ data over the world ocean, mainly physical parameters such temperature, salinity and currents but also extending to biogeochemical parameters as the needs of operational and research users evolve.

CORIOLIS, initiated in 2000 is now in a pre-operational mode towards a fully sustained operational structure. Coriolis coordinates the French contribution to main Global network such as Argo, DBCP, PIRATA ... and integrates national activities related to in situ measurements. Since 2008, it plays an important role in the setting up of the EuroArgo Research infrastructure that will strengthenthe European contribution to Argo through commitments signed at member state level (http://www.euro-argo.eu/) .

CORIOLIS has developed a data center that is the focal point for data collection and distribution to operational oceanography modelers and researchers. Originally developed to serve the French Mercator-Ocean operational forecasting service, Coriolis enhanced its product catalogue to serve European operational centers through the MyOcean FP7 project for which it coordinated the MyOcean In Situ Thematic Center. It provides access to integrated datasets of core parameters (temperature, salinity, current, sea level, chlorophyll, oxygen and nutrient) to characterize ocean state and ocean variability, by this contributing to initialization, forcing, assimilation and validation of ocean numerical models. The center collects observation received either from platforms at sea via satellite telecommunication or from other national data centers. It controls them in near real time using automatic quality control procedures. Coriolis provides a variety of distribution means from viewing service and sub-setting tools via WWW server to FTP distribution for operational users for research community.

Initial focus has been on observations from automatic observatories at sea (e.g. floats, buoys, gliders, ferrybox, drifters, SOOP) which are transmitting to the shore in real-time. It been extended to historical observations to build a system for re-analysis purposes that integrate data over the past 25 years. The latest release of CORA (CORO03.3) covers the period 1990 to 2011. To qualify this dataset, several tests have been developed to improve in a homogeneous way the quality of the raw dataset and to fit the level required by the physical ocean re-analysis activities (assimilation and validation). In addition, improved diagnostic tools were developed - including global ocean indicators - which give information on the potential and quality of the CORA dataset for all applications. The next version of CORA will be issued in April 2014 and will provide an enhanced service on European seas as it will integrate historical data provided by SeaDataNet infrastructure ( network of European National Data Centers ) and by EuroGOOS agencies. These near real time and reanalysis products are also available through the MyOcean Service Desk (http://www.myocean.eu/).

For more information http://www.coriolis.eu.org , email codac@ifremer.fr


ID 2.2-14

MyOcean In-Situ Thematic Center: A service for operational Oceanography

S Pouliquen1,Thierry Carval1, David Guillotin1 , Christine Coatanoan1, Thomas Loubrieu1, Antoine Grouazel2, Karina Von Schuckmann2,Henning Wedhe3,Lid Sjur Ringheim 3,,Thomas Hammarklint4, Anders Hartman4,,Kai Soetje5, Tobias Gies5, Marta De Alfonso6, Leonidas Perivoliotis7, Dimitris Kassis7, Antonis Chalkiopoulos7, Veselka Marinova8 , Pierre Jaccard 9, AnnaBirgitta Ledang9, Kai Sorensen9, Giulio Notarstefano10, Joaquin Tintore 11, Seppo.Kaitala12, Petra Roiha13, Lesley Rickards14, Giuseppe Manzella15

1 IFREMER, Brest, France

2 CNRS, Brest, France

3 IMR, Bergen, Norway

4 SHMI, Stockholm, Sweden

5 BSH, Hamburg, Germany

6 Puertos Del Estado, Madrid, Spain

7 HCMR, Athens, Greece

8 IOBAS, Varna, Bulgaria

9 Niva, Bergen, Norway

10 OGS, Trieste, Italy

11 IMEDEA/SOCIB, Mallorca ,Spain

12 SYKE, Helsinki, Finland

13 FMI,Helsinki, Finland

14 BODC, Liverpool, UK

15 ENEA, La Spezia, Italy

Abstract

MyOcean is the implementation project of the GMES Marine Core Service to develop the first concerted and integrated pan-European capacity for Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting. Within this project, the in-situ Thematic Assembly Centre (in-situ TAC, INS-TAC) of MyOcean is a distributed service integrating data from different sources for operational oceanography needs. The MyOcean in-situ TAC is collecting and carrying out quality control in a homogeneous manner on data from outside MyOcean data providers, especially EuroGOOS partners in Europe, to fit the needs of internal and external users. It provides access to integrated datasets of core parameters (temperature, salinity, current, sea level, chlorophyll, oxygen and nutrient) to characterise ocean state and ocean variability, by this contributing to initialization, forcing, assimilation and validation of ocean numerical models. Since the primary objective of MyOcean is to forecast ocean state, the initial focus is on observations from automatic observatories at sea (e.g. floats, buoys, gliders, ferrybox, drifters, SOOP) which are transmitting to the shore in real-time. The second objective is to set up a system for re-analysis purposes that integrate data over the past 20 years. The global and regional portals set up by the INS-TAC have been extended by the EuroGOOS ROOSes (Arctic ROOS, BOOS, NOOS, IBI-ROOS, MOON and Black Sea GOOS) to integrate additional parameters (wind, waves,..) important for downstream and national applications.

The product and services provided by the MyOcean in situ thematic assembly centre will be presented as well as how it developed in partnership with EuroGOOS, JCOMM and SeaDataNet to provide products useful for operational oceanography needs both for Forecasting and reanalysis activities but also useful to the research communities.


ID 2.2-15

The MyOcean Ocean Colour Thematic Assembling Centre:

an Integrated European Service to access satellite ocean colour data

R. Santoleri 1, S. Colella1, V. Forneris1, P. Garnesson2, F. Gohin3,, B. Saulquin2 , M. Taberner4, G. Volpe1

1 CNR- Istituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima, Rome, Italy

2 ACRI-ST, Sophie Antipolis, France

3 Institut français de recherche pour l’exploitation de la mer, Brest, France

4 Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, UK

Abstract

The synoptic view and the regular data coverage provided by satellite data make them essential to monitor the marine ecosystem. Ocean colour satellite data can be used to generate a variety of oceanographic parameters that are essential to monitor the state of the marine ecosystem at short and long time scales. The MyOcean Ocean Colour Thematic Assembling Centre (OCTAC) is a key component of the operational ocean observing and forecasting systems currently developed in Europe. The main objective of OCTAC is to build and operate a European Ocean Colour Service for marine applications high-quality core ocean colour (OC) products accompanied by a suite of quality assurance items including accuracy. OCTAC is meant to bridge the gap between space agencies providing ocean color data and the MyOcean component dedicated to modeling and forecast as well as the gap between space agencies and organizations, providing further value-added services that require ocean color-derived information.

The OCTAC is a distributed system which act as a Integrated Production Centre. It is composed by three production units, having the mandate to process satellite data, and one single Dissemination Unit delivering the OC products to the MyOcean users. The OCTAC provides Global and Regional ocean colour products covering the global ocean and the European Regional Seas(Arctic Ocean, Baltic Sea, North-east Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea, and Black Sea). Ocean colour regional products differ from the global products not only in their resolution and area coverage but also in the parameters' values. In fact the regional datasets, are produced using region-specific algorithms. As a direct consequence of regional waters optical complexities, tailored OC processing chains are used by MyOcean OCTAC to further improve the quality of the global products and to meet the error requirements at the regional scale.

OCTAC delivers Near Real Time (NRT) and reprocessed OC datasets. The NRT products are operationally produced every day and provide the best estimate of the ocean colour variables at the time of processing. A first version of this product is generated soon after the satellite passage within few hours from the satellite acquisition. The NRT products are then updated within few days (typically within 5 days from sensing) by reprocessing the OC data by using updated ancillary information. The consistency of the OC NRT product time series is monitored by the OCTAC production units info about the product quality are provided to the users. The reprocessed products, instead, are consistent multi-year time series produced by using a consolidated and consistent input dataset, with a unique processing software configuration. Therefore they represent a much more solid data set for long-term analyses.

OCTAC system and its products will be described with the major scientific and technological steps taken to develop, maintain and improve the system and its products.


ID 2.2-16

An pre-operational Indian-Pacific ocean analysis system at National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China

S. Mei

National Marine Enviromental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing, China

Abstract

Over the last few years, a pre-operational ocean analysis system for the Indian-Pacific Ocean has been developed. Within the analysis system, the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used as the numerical circulation model with staggered resolutions of 1/4°x1/4° and 3/4°x3/4° in the Indian Ocean and Indian-Pacific Ocean, respectively. Vertically, there are 22 isopycnical levels. Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) is adopted as the data assimilation scheme of the analysis system, which is considered to be computationally cheap and easy to immigrate. Both Argo data from Coriolis Center and SSHA data from AVISO are assimilated in to the system by adding observations as an adjustment during model integration.

Several key improvements regarding the data assimilation scheme are made for the analysis system. Due to the large scale of Indian-Pacific Ocean, we identify an assimilation time window as 10 days, during which the observations will be assimilated into the analysis system. In addition, we used a seasonal update from a free running model to estimate the background error covariance matrix. The vertical correlations of background error in the assimilation scheme are also taken into account.


ID 2.2-17

The CONCEPTS Global Ice-Ocean Prediction System: Establishing an Environmental Prediction Capability in Canada

G.C. Smith1, F. Roy2, M. Reszka2, F. Dupont1, J.-F. Lemieux1, C. Beaudoin1, Z. He1, D. Surcel Colan2, J.-M. Belanger1, S. Skachko3, Y. Liu3, M. Buehner1, F. Davidson3, H. Ritchie4, Y. Lu5, M. Drevillon6, B. Tranchant7, G. Garric6 and C.-E. Testut 6

1 Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, CANADA

2 Canadian Meteorological Centre, Environment Canada, Dorval, CANADA

3 Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, CANADA

4 Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dartmouth, CANADA

5 Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, CANADA

6 Mercator-Océan, FRANCE

7 Collecte Localisation Spatiale (CLS), FRANCE

Abstract

We present results from the ¼° resolution Global Ice-Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS) developed as part of CONCEPTS (Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems), in collaboration with the French operational ocean forecasting centre Mercator-Océan. GIOPS is intended to form the backbone for Canadian Marine Environmental Prediction providing much needed ice and ocean fields for a variety of applications, such as: sea ice prediction, coast guard operations (seal hunt, navigation), fisheries and aquaculture management, increased understanding of biological field observations, assessment of regional climate change impacts, risk assessment for extreme events and emergency response (search and rescue, oil spill). Particular applications at CMC include: initialization of seasonal forecasts, initial and boundary conditions for the regional METAREAs forecasting system and initial conditions for coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean forecasts.

GIOPS has been running routinely at the CMC since December 2010 producing weekly analyses and 10 day ice-ocean forecasts using the NEMO modeling system and the Mercator assimilation system. The Mercator data assimilation system is a multi-variate reduced-order extended Kalman filter that assimilates sea level anomaly, sea surface temperature (SST) and in situ temperature and salinity data. Ocean analyses are blended with ice fields from CMC daily ice analyses. Here, we present an evaluation of the global prediction system with a focus on the forecast skill of SST and sea ice concentration. An evaluation of SST forecasts using AVHRR satellite observations demonstrates a significant improvement over persistence in most regions. Results point to the marginal ice zone (MIZ) as the most difficult region to constrain adequately. Verification of ice forecast skill against NOAA IMS analyses and CMC 3DVAR ice analyses show that the system provides robust forecasting skill globally as compared to persistence. Finally, current and future developments to improve the forecasting system are discussed.


ID 2.2-18

Towards an eddy resolving operational forecast system for the Indian Ocean

Ashwanth Srinivasan1, Sudheer Joseph2, Satheesh C. Shenoi2, Eric P. Chassignet3

1 Tendral LLC, Key Biscayne, Florida, USA

2 Indian National Center for Ocean Information Systems, Hyderabad, India

3 Florida State University Tallahassee, USA

Abstract

Although the Indian Ocean is part of global ocean predictions systems like HYCOM and MERCATOR, there is a need for a regional basin scale system in order to fully understand the impact of data assimilation on specific features of the Indian Ocean and greater operational flexibility. Toward this end, a pre-operational eddy resolving Indian Ocean nowcast/forecast system, jointly developed by Tendral LLC, the Indian National Center for Ocean Information Systems (INCOIS) and Florida State University, has been running daily at INCOIS since August 2012. The system issues a nowcast and a 5-day forecast of 3D ocean currents, temperature and salinity for the Indian Ocean as part of the daily operational cycle. It is based on the 1/12° resolution (6.5-9 km) Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) configured for the region enclosed within 10E-125E/43S-30N and with 30 vertical layers. The model is nested within the Global HYCOM Ocean Prediction System, and forced at the surface by winds, heat fluxes and precipitation derived from operational weather models. Along track Sea Level Anomalies (SLA) from Jason 1, Jason 2, and Cryosat and SARAL altimeters provided by Aviso and a Level 4 foundation temperature product provided by the US Naval Oceanographic Office are assimilated daily into the model. The assimilation scheme is multivariate linear statistical interpolation implemented for HYCOM’s generalized vertical coordinate system and utilizes forecast error covariance derived from model states. We present results from a 2-year hindcast (2011-2012) and an evaluation of the preoperational system outputs from 15-Aug-2012 to 31-Mar-2013 focusing on the impact of assimilation on the 3D ocean state and intra-seasonal to seasonal scales of variability. Statistics from 5 days forecasts demonstrates that there is a clear improvement in model's predictive skill for mesoscale variability and sea surface temperature over the entire model domain. Preliminary comparison of the system outputs with independent data from the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction generally show improved performance for unobserved variables at depth as well. These comparisons and future plans for further development of system will be presented.


ID 2.2-19

Operational Oceanography Infrastructure

George N.E Stafford

Department of Water Resources, Banjul, The Gambia

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Societies rely heavily on the Ocean for daily food supplements to feed our populations and also for the transportation of goods, materials and equipment including other socio- economic benefits that result from coastal industries.

Recognizing the weaknesses revealed by a WMO survey with regards to countries that lack MarineMet in their National Meteorological Services including the absence of an effective warning and disaster mitigation strategy, a four years project was launched in July 2009, Dakar, Senegal with the collaboration of the Spanish Government for the Northwest African basin to enhance Marine Meteorological Services for Maritime Safety and Fisheries Management.

JCOMM SOT through the VOS-DB pledges to donate Autonomous Decker drifter buoys upon successful recruitment of vessels so as to enhance Met-Ocean observations but this proves futile as most vessels plying our territorial waters are foreign owned and captains of these vessels are not cooperative due to fear of piracy.

Living along the coast has many advantages. It comes with a unique set of risks and or hazard that can threaten lives, property, and economies. Hence, a new initiative called West African Coast Observation Mission (WACOM) is tasked with monitoring the evolution of our coastal areas; in terms of the hydrodynamic and climate processes including human induce activities so as to implement guiding decision in planning and reducing coastal risks.

ANALYSES, FORECAST PRODUCTS AND TOOLS IN USE: Reception of national, regional as well as global In-Situ Observations. Remote Sensing data - Satellite Imagery mainly from EUMETSAT and NEXSAT Including numerous Numerical Weather and Oceanographic Prediction products from ECMWF, NOAA/ NWS/ NCEP - (OPC/ NESDIS), FNMOC, UK Met-Office, AEMET and ACMAD. These information are obtained from different web-sites including PUMA/MSG Workstation (EUMETCAST-Africa).

CURRENT SERVICES PROVIDED AND DISSEMINATION: Transmission of Shipping Forecast Bulletins via the GTS. To Gambia Ports Authority for broadcast to inbound/ outbound Ocean-going vessels from the Harbour/ Port of Banjul and to those operating within our territorial waters including commercial fishing vessels. Guidance is also disseminated to the Navy, and Gambia Fire and Rescue Services for their operations (Safety and security of our patrol crew at sea). Remote Sensing products are sent to National Environment Agency, and to Gambia Fire and Rescue Services for display at fish landing sites. Unfortunately our artisan fisher folks and disaster agency do not benefit much due to poor communication logistics. However, TV Public Weather broadcast fills-in the gap.

CONCLUSION: My institution anticipates acquiring and installing three coastal Automatic Weather Station including Remote Tide gauges plus an Acoustic wave and Current profiler offshore so as to contribute to the Global Ocean Observation System. The ability to anticipate and respond promptly most especially to natural hazards depends on our understanding of how Weather/ Climate systems develop through the interactions between Atmosphere - Land - Ocean.


ID 2.2-20

Global and REGIONAL OPERATIONAL Ocean forecast SYSTEMS at NCEP/NWS

H. Tolman and A. Mehra

MMAB/EMC/NCEP/NWS, College Park, USA

Abstract

EMC/NCEP/NWS has been running a global operational ocean forecast system since Fall 2011 which serves as a key component of the US national ocean forecast backbone capability for a diverse group of customers and partners. This capability is also part of an evolving integrated operational Earth system modeling system at NOAA/NCEP.

As we move forward with enhanced computational capabilities at NWS, plans are to implement higher resolution (3-5 Km) basin model ocean forecast systems for the Atlantic, Arctic, East Pacific and West Pacific. These regional systems would use open boundary information from the existing operational global system and in turn provide higher resolution information for operational and research coastal, regional, hurricane and ecological prediction systems. Methods for using members of an ensemble for both global and regional systems to enhance operational ocean forecast skill will also be explored.


ID 2.2-21

The evolution of the regional forecasting systems of the Mediterranean Sea during the 20th centuries

M. Tonani1, N. Pinardi2, P. Oddo1, S. Dobricic3, A. Guarnieri1, C. Fratianni1, M. Drudi1, E. Clemeti1, M. De Dominicis1, S. Simoncelli1, J. Pistoia3, G. Girardi1, A. Grandi 1, D. Delrosso1 and S. Marino1

1 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Oceanografia Operativa, Bologna, Italy

2 University of Bologna, Corso di Scienze Ambientali, Ravenna, Italy

3 Centro EuroMediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy

Abstract

The Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System is operational since year 2000. This system is the Mediterranean component of the European Center for Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting being developed by MyOcean2 (www.myocean.eu). MFS is build upon three components, hydrodynamics, waves and marine biochemistry. The physical components of the system are characterized by a novel implementation of the NEMO code coupled with a wave model (WaveWatch-III). The system produces daily 10-day forecasts and once a week the past 15-days analysis, using a 3dVAR scheme for the assimilation of satellite SLA and vertical profiles of T and S. Every 2-3 years 10-20 years re-analyses of the ocean hydrodynamics are also produced with the updated model and adata assimilation system. Several developments are ongoing from the model and data assimilation point of view, including the introduction of atmospheric pressure forcing, implicit vs fully explicit free surface model formulations, coupling between the currents and waves and the assimilation of new datasets. A specific effort is continuosly done in order to be able to evaluate the operational products in real time and delay time, using independent and semi-independent observations. The validation work is done in collaboration with the MONGOOS community. Part of the quality procedures are performed following the international standards as indicated by the GODAE IV-Task Team for the computation of CLASS4 skill scores. The MFS system serves a number of downstream services, among them, oil spill forecasting where an open source oil spill model, MEDSLICK-II, is integrated with MFS currents and waves forecasts. Another downstream service that derives from delayed mode MFS products is the Marine Environment Indicators and Indices Service (MAES) where the physical conditions of the Mediterranean Sea are transformed into environmental indices. Last but not least, MFS offers initial and boundary conditions for several sub-regional and costal forecasting systems implemented in the Mediterranean sea.

 


ID 2.2-22

The South China Sea operational forecasting system: model and data assimilation

D.K. Wang1, H. Wang1, G.K. Lv1 and J. Zhu2

1 National Marine Enviromental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing, China

2 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Abstract

The high-resolution South China Sea forecasting system has been under development for couple years and has recently moved to operational phase in the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC). This paper provides a detailed description of the South China Sea operational forecasting system (SCSOFS) regarding the regional ocean circulation model and the ocean data assimilation methodology used in the system, while a brief introduction is made to the real-time observations which are disseminated by operational ocean data providers and are assimilated into the circulation model using data assimilation techniques. This work is an example of Chinese efforts and outcomes in developing regional-scale ocean forecasting systems over the past five years.

The numerical ocean circulation model used in SCSOFS is the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), while Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) is adopted to assimilate the real-time data sets of along-track Sea Level Anomaly (TSLA), Argo temperature and salinity profiles, and Sea Surface Temperature (SST). The key scientific issues related to EnOI, including localization scheme, ensemble sampling strategy and observation error caused by discrepancy between assimilation time and observation time (AGE), are investigated to quantify the assimilation performance and its values adding to the forecasting system.

In the end of this paper, the general performance of SCSOFS is systematically evaluated by comparing the forecasts with in-situ observations from multiple cruises in the SCS. The validation illustrates that the SCSOFS has remarkable well capabilities in predicting the ocean state in the SCS, including the meso-scale processes and the ocean’s response to extreme weathers. Currently, the daily forecasts issued by SCSOFS have been used as inputs or forcing by wide-range downstream applications and services provided by NMEFC.


ID 2.2-23

An Overview of the Chinese Global Operational Oceanography Forecasting System

H. Wang1

1 National Marine Enviromental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing, China

Abstract

In recent years, some large developing countries such as China, India, Brazil and South Africa have been building their own operational oceanography forecasting systems. While some developing countries have established operational ocean observation networks, and are currently assimilating observations into numerical models, only a few countries have the ability to issue operational or pre-operational forecasts.

Over the past five years, the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC) in China has been making great efforts in developing an operational oceanography forecasting system with global coverage and regional zooms. Recently, the system successfully turned to operational phase and was named as the first version of the Global Operational Oceanography Forecasting System (GOOFS-v1). GOOFS includes both ocean circulation and ocean wave models on global and regional scales, providing sustained predictions of 3-D vision on marine temperature, salinity, currents, sea level as well as ocean waves. GOOFS is composited by six main elements, which are ocean wave forecasting systems for both global ocean and China Seas, global circulation forecasting system, Northwest Pacific circulation forecasting system, the Bohai-Yellow Sea-East China Sea forecasting system and the South China Sea forecasting system.

The purpose of the paper is to provide an intensive overview on the current operational oceanography capabilities in developing countries, to identify the key scientific and technical issues of the newly developed systems, and to discuss how to strengthen collaboration and development among developing countries. Especially, GOOFS developed in China is introduced in details, including the ocean observing systems, the operational forecasting systems and the wide-range services it provides, and the expected developments within the next 5 years which will lead to the next phase of GOOFS.


ID 2.2-24

An Assessment of Oceanic Variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

Yan Xue1, Boyin Huang1,2, Zeng-Zhen Hu1, Arun Kumar1, Caihong Wen1,2,

David Behringer3, Sudhir Nadiga3

1 Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Maryland, U.S.A

2 Wyle Information System, Camp Springs, Maryland, U.S.A

3 Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA, Maryland, U.S.A

Abstract

At the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land over the period 1979-2009, referred to as the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), was recently completed. The oceanic component of CFSR includes many advances: (a) the MOM4 ocean model with an interactive sea-ice, (b) the 6 hour coupled model forecast as the first guess, (c) inclusion of the mean climatological river runoff, and (d) high spatial (0.5o x 0.5o) and temporal (hourly) model outputs. Since the CFSR will be used by many in initializing/validating ocean models and climate research, the primary motivation of the paper is to inform the user community about the saline features in the CFSR ocean component, and how the ocean reanalysis compares with in situ observations and previous reanalysis.

The net ocean surface heat flux of the CFSR has smaller biases compared to the sum of the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) and the shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-FD) than the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2) in both the tropics and extratropics. The ocean surface wind stress of the CFSR has smaller biases and higher correlation with the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts than the R1 and R2, particularly in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean. The CFSR also has smaller errors compared to the QuickSCAT climatology for September 1999 to October 2009 than the R1 and R2. However, the trade winds of the CFSR in the central equatorial Pacific are too strong prior to 1999, and become close to observations once the ATOVS radiance data are assimilated in late 1998. A sudden reduction of easterly wind bias is related to the sudden onset of a warm bias in the eastern equatorial Pacific temperature around 1998/99. The sea surface height and top 300 meter heat content (HC300) of the CFSR compare with observations better than the GODAS in the tropical Indian Ocean and extratropics, but much worse in the tropical Atlantic, probably due to discontinuity in the deep ocean temperature and salinity caused by the six data streams of the CFSR. In terms of climate variability, the CFSR provides a good simulation of Tropical Instability Waves (TIW) and oceanic Kelvin waves in the tropical Pacific, and the dominant modes of HC300 that are associated with El Nino and Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.