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CP-TT activities



The majority of applications for both the atmospheric and ocean weather prediction lie within the coupled ocean-atmosphere boundary layers. Even those industries that operate above or below this zone frequently must transit through or operate within it (i.e. airline and offshore industries). Natural systems including the terrestrial and marine ecosystems interact strongly with and are critically dependent on the coupled boundary layers.

There is an increasing emphasis in research of the ocean in seamless predictability from medium-range (3-16 days) to seasonal time scales. The GOV community is well positioned to contribute, through collaboration with the Working Group on Numerical Experiments (WGNE) and other seasonal groups, toward achieving the goal of a seamless operational forecasting capability from weather through to seasonal climate variability, and to demonstrate the needs for ocean observations to support such a capability.

The mission goal of the Coupled Prediction Task Team (CP-TT) is draw together the international scientific and technical expertise in ocean, sea-ice and wave prediction and to seek collaboration with equivalent expert groups in atmospheric-land surface-hydrology prediction to accelerate the scientific and technical development of fully coupled systems for short- to medium-range prediction.

The critical objectives of the CP-TT are to

  • Coordinate and promote the scientific and technical development of coupled prediction for extending the performance of ocean, marine and sea-ice forecasts
  • Facilitate establishing the communication of the scientific and technical community within GOVST within the atmospheric and coupled community ocean
  • Quantify and document the impact of coupling and the relative contribution attributable to ocean, sea-ice and wave prediction;
  • Identify and define specific activities to address deficiencies of coupling methodologies;
  • Through collaboration with the OSEval –TT, help define observational requirements for coupled prediction systems.

Maintaining the established links with WGNE, and developing links with other groups such as the longer-range prediction groups (e.g. seasonal prediction), and with the waves and sea-ice communities will be a critical success factor for this Task Team. Specific initiatives for joint forum will be pursued as the primary method for addressing these objectives

This task team will retain a view across the full range of activities of coupled prediction inclusive of relevant DA but with coordination with the DA-TT. Specific activities to extend the methods of DA for coupled systems would be core to DA-TT. The behaviour of the DA methods as part of a coupled prediction system will be of mutual and cross-cutting interest and will be coordinated.

The observational requirements will be developed through leveraging established methods and planned initiatives of the Observing System Evaluation Task Team. The OSEval-TT has established a linkage with these communities.

The measures of effectiveness:

  • GOVST recognised within the atmospheric and coupled community for expertise in ocean, sea-ice and wave prediction science
  • Review publications available that document progress in coupled prediction
  • Monitoring the completion of specific activities in the work plan


February 2016